Time to look at the October jobs numbers for Canada and Ontario.
For Canada, a big gain of 43,900 seasonally adjusted jobs in October. Unfortunately that total was driven by part-time job gains. Full-time jobs actually declined by 23,100 compared to a gain of 67,100. That's a ratio of 4.11 full-time jobs for every part-time job.
Since the start of the year, Canada is up 149,700 jobs, but down 12,200 full-time jobs. So the theme for the country in 2016 is basically stagnation for full-time jobs versus big gains in part-time jobs.
Ontario is similar to the overall Canadian numbers. Overall seasonally adjusted jobs were up 24,200 for the month. However full-time jobs declined by 7,200 jobs versus a gain of part-time 32,600 jobs.
For the year, Ontario has gained 52,600 jobs, an increase of 0.755%, which is lower than the working age population growth of 1.09%. For the year the number of full-time jobs has declined by 24,200 compared to a big gain of 76,900 part-time jobs. So in some sense for Ontario, October followed the overall pattern of 2016: big gains in part-time employment, small losses in full-time employment.
Given the progressive nature of Ontario's income tax system, this full-time part-time change can't be a good trade-off for government revenues.
Showing posts with label canada employment. Show all posts
Showing posts with label canada employment. Show all posts
Wednesday, November 16, 2016
Saturday, August 6, 2016
Canadan and Ontario July 2016 Employment Numbers. Ugh. Ontario Loses 20,400 Full-Time Jobs in 2016
Employment numbers came out yesterday for Canada and the provinces and for Canada and Ontario especially, the numbers aren't great.
The headline number is that Canada lost 31,900 jobs (seasonally adjusted) in July, while Ontario lost 36,100 jobs. So effective the rest of country actually gained 4,200 jobs. So not good for Ontario while not that bad for the rest of the country. Canada's full-time jobs numbers decreased by 64,300 over the first six months of 2016, while the total number of jobs increased by 37,800 on increased part-time jobs.
For Ontario, over the first half of the year, the province only gained 500 jobs, which is way less than what is required to keep up with population growth. Strangely, Ontario's minister of economic development, Brad Duguid is quoted in a CBC article as saying " Obviously, we would have rather seen an increase in jobs in July, but the overall trends in Ontario continue to remain very, very positive"
More disturbingly, Ontario has lost 20,400 full-time jobs over the first half of 2016. That is with the province showing strong GDP growth in the first quarter of 2016 of 3.0% annualized. I have a feeling that the second quarter GDP number for Ontario will be lower than 3.0%. The lower dollar doesn't seem to be helping Ontario that much, which could well mean an even lower dollar.
Another bad thing for Ontario is that the participation rate cratered from 60.8% to 60.4% in July, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged from 6.4%. This is an example of looking beyond the employment rate.
July could certainly be a blip and with the US beating expectations with 255,000 jobs versus 180,00 jobs, Ontario could pick it up in August. Barring a much lower dollar though, I'm not holding my breath, as what economic strength Ontario has had, is in residential real estate. The US doesn't matter as much anymore.
The headline number is that Canada lost 31,900 jobs (seasonally adjusted) in July, while Ontario lost 36,100 jobs. So effective the rest of country actually gained 4,200 jobs. So not good for Ontario while not that bad for the rest of the country. Canada's full-time jobs numbers decreased by 64,300 over the first six months of 2016, while the total number of jobs increased by 37,800 on increased part-time jobs.
For Ontario, over the first half of the year, the province only gained 500 jobs, which is way less than what is required to keep up with population growth. Strangely, Ontario's minister of economic development, Brad Duguid is quoted in a CBC article as saying " Obviously, we would have rather seen an increase in jobs in July, but the overall trends in Ontario continue to remain very, very positive"
More disturbingly, Ontario has lost 20,400 full-time jobs over the first half of 2016. That is with the province showing strong GDP growth in the first quarter of 2016 of 3.0% annualized. I have a feeling that the second quarter GDP number for Ontario will be lower than 3.0%. The lower dollar doesn't seem to be helping Ontario that much, which could well mean an even lower dollar.
Another bad thing for Ontario is that the participation rate cratered from 60.8% to 60.4% in July, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged from 6.4%. This is an example of looking beyond the employment rate.
July could certainly be a blip and with the US beating expectations with 255,000 jobs versus 180,00 jobs, Ontario could pick it up in August. Barring a much lower dollar though, I'm not holding my breath, as what economic strength Ontario has had, is in residential real estate. The US doesn't matter as much anymore.
Friday, June 5, 2015
Canada's May 2015 Employment Numbers Are Out and They Are Good
Statscan released the Canadian jobs numbers for May and there was a big jump, up 58,900 compared to a loss of 19,700 jobs in April. One could look at this as the weak first quarter of 2015 continued into April, but now job growth has accelerated in May (and possibly the overall economy has accelerated in May as well).
Both full-time and part-time jobs were up, 30,900 and 27,900 respectively, so there's no trading full-time for part-time jobs that was seen earlier in the year.
Over five months, from the start of the year employment is up 102,300 which isn't nearly as impressive (although still not bad). The labour force was up 133,600 in that time span.
All and all it is an impressive jump for May and maybe the start of a positive trend. I'll look at Ontario's and Alberta's numbers on the weekend.
Both full-time and part-time jobs were up, 30,900 and 27,900 respectively, so there's no trading full-time for part-time jobs that was seen earlier in the year.
Over five months, from the start of the year employment is up 102,300 which isn't nearly as impressive (although still not bad). The labour force was up 133,600 in that time span.
All and all it is an impressive jump for May and maybe the start of a positive trend. I'll look at Ontario's and Alberta's numbers on the weekend.
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