When Will the Electricity Price Increases For November 2015 Be Announced For Ontario?

Electricity prices are change May 1st and November 1st in Ontario. In theory they could go down, but obviously lately they have gone up quite rapidly. It is now October 11, so we are getting close to the point that the increases should be announced.

For the last increase, I found a CBC article dated April 20th, so likely around October 20th. Conveniently for the federal Liberals, that's after the October 19th federal poll. sdfds

This blog post of mine describes the Ontario electricity price increases in May 2015:

"For on peak pricing, the price per kWh is increasing on May 1st from 14 cents to 16.1 cents, a 2.1 cent increase or 15%. The on peak increase on November 1st was from 13.5 cents to 14 cents, a 3.7 increase. Thus the year over year increase, from 13.5 cents to 16.1 cents, is 2.6 cents or a 19.2% increase which is obviously significantly more than Ontario's inflation rate.

For mid-peak, prices will increase on May 1st from 11.4 cents to 12.2 cents, a 0.8 cents increase or 7%. On November 1st, the price increase from 11.2 cents to 11.4 cents, only a 1.8 percent increase. Year on year the increase was 1 cent or an 8.9% increase, again significantly above Ontario's inflation rate.

Finally for off-peak, the increase on May 1st is 0.3 cents, from 7.7 cents to 8 cents, a 3.9% increase. On November 1st, the price increased from 7.5 cents  to 7.7 cents, a 0.2 cent increase or a 2.7% increase. Year over year the increase was 0.5 cents from 7.5 to 8 cents, a 6.7% increase, which is well above Ontario's inflation but nowhere near the massive increase in on peak pricing."

What can we expect for this November? Perhaps 3.5 to 4% overall, with different increases for the different periods. With wind production up and peaking overnight, keeping off-peak rates low relative to peak pricing makes a lot of sense. 
 

Ontario Tories Release Documents Showing the Liberals Will Miss Deficit Targets

There's still no sign of a Liberal budget date. I've heard rumours that this budgets numbers wouldn't be good and that the Liberals plan to balance the budget in 2017-2018 would be pretty much impossible to achieve.

Now according to this Globe article, the Tories have released documents stating that:

The Ontario government is set to miss its deficit reduction targets for the next two years and must either dramatically cut spending or hike revenue to make up the shortfall.

That’s the message in a series of internal government documents prepared early last year. The papers, primarily briefing notes written by senior bureaucrats for Premier Kathleen Wynne, were obtained by a legislative committee and released by the Progressive Conservative opposition Monday.

 I can't say I'm very surprised. To meet those budget targets, the Liberals would have had to take some draconian measures. However news like the OPP getting a 8.5% raise on January 1st this year after two years of freezes and various other expenditures means that there's no way those targets can be met (amusingly, the OPP raise will apply to the last three months of the 2013-2014 budget). 

I'm assuming that the Liberals will take their time releasing the 2014-2015 budget but it will be interesting.

Glen Murray Out of Ontario Liberal Leadership Race, Supporting Wynne

Just saw on @CBCQueensPark's twitter feed that Glen Murray, former Winnipeg mayor and present MPP is out of the Liberal leadership race and is supporting Kathleen Wynne. Before today the scuttlebutt I heard from Ontario government workers was that the race was between Sandra Pupatello and Wynne. I doubt this endorsement puts Wynne over the top, but she has to now be the favourite.

Murray probably didn't bother waiting until the convention to support Wynne because his support was probably going to be embarrassing.

Eric Hoskins Running For Ontario Liberal Leadership?

Looks like provincial cabinet minister Eric Hoskins is resigning his cabinet post to run for the Ontario Liberal leadership and to become insta-premier at least for a little while.

I posited in a previous post that Hoskins was a good dark horse candidate for the Liberal leadership, because his backstory as the co-founder of the charity War Child Canada and relatively short period as an MPP (September 2009) could make him a Messiah pick for a desperate Liberal base that is staring down defeat with a more conventional candidate. Hoskins is older than I thought at 51, but certainly looks younger albeit in a Joel Osteen type way.

Note this is not in any way an endorsement of Hoskins, merely an attempt at political prediction.