Here's a National Post article reporting Quebec's GDP growth in the first quarter:
The province’s gross domestic product grew by 0.2% in the first
quarter of 2012, the same as the two quarters before, according to data
released Thursday by Quebec’s government statistical agency. Its 0.6%
annualized growth rate for the first three months of the year compares
to 1.9% for Canada as a whole.
Wikipedia's reports Quebec's population growth rate at 0.7% a year in 2006. So for the last three quarters, GDP growth per capita in Quebec has been basically zero. Considering the student disruptions recently I can't see the second quarter number being that great either. Quebec has actually done a reasonable job in reducing their deficit, mainly by raising taxes. I'm wondering if this has been impacting GDP growth of late.
Hopefully Ontario's number for the first quarter will be out soon. I'm very curious to see that. Quebec's bad number is clearly dragging the Canadian number down. I doubt Ontario's number will be as bad as Quebec's, but you never know.
Thursday, June 28, 2012
Tuesday, June 12, 2012
May Unemployment Report, Not So Hot
After two scorching months of job growth in Canada, the May numbers honked, coming in at only 7,700. Haven't seen the Ontario numbers anywhere, so I assume they were flat too. Since last month's Ontario's numbers were also flat that's not really great news for Ontario government revenues. I can't see June's numbers being great and with Europe going slowly down in flames, Ontario's 2012-2013 deficit will probably end up being higher than predicted.
Sunday, June 10, 2012
National Post Article on Ontario Electricity
Here's a great article from the National Post about Ontario's electricity market answering the question why the price of electricity is going up in Ontario versus trending down in other places in North America. It needs to be read, but basically the cause is paying for green energy combined with decreasing electricity use.
This is depressing considering how few green electricity jobs have been created in Ontario. Also depressing is that this is basically a regressive policy where money is transferred from everybody, including the poor to those wealthy enough to be able to install solar panels.
This is depressing considering how few green electricity jobs have been created in Ontario. Also depressing is that this is basically a regressive policy where money is transferred from everybody, including the poor to those wealthy enough to be able to install solar panels.
Friday, June 8, 2012
Hooter's in Downtown Hamilton?
On Twitter there's rumours of a Hooter's opening downtown. Certainly people will have different opinions on this, but frankly I'm surprised that one hasn't opened years ago. I'm pretty sure it would have done well.
Saturday, June 2, 2012
Canada GDP Growth 1.9% in Q1, Ontario's?
Well the news is out that Canada's GDP growth was only 1.9% in quarter one, below expectations. What does this number mean for Ontario? The last few quarters Ontario has underperformed the Canada number so we could easily be looking for a number between 1 and 1.5%. Considering the population growth rate is 1% (from Wikipedia) for Ontario, that's a per capita GDP growth rate of around zero. That can't be great for provincial revenues. Unfortunately we won't hear the Ontario number until some time in July.
One interesting thing about the Canada number is that its relation to the US number:
The growth matched the economy’s fourth-quarter performance, which was revised up from 1.8 per cent, as well as first-quarter growth in the United States.
Curiously Canada was more jobs relatively during that period than the US. Perhaps weaker productivity growth in Canada is leading to more jobs. Or maybe it heralds weak job growth to come in Canada. After the crappy US number released yesterday for May, Canada's number announced next week should be interesting.
One interesting thing about the Canada number is that its relation to the US number:
The growth matched the economy’s fourth-quarter performance, which was revised up from 1.8 per cent, as well as first-quarter growth in the United States.
Curiously Canada was more jobs relatively during that period than the US. Perhaps weaker productivity growth in Canada is leading to more jobs. Or maybe it heralds weak job growth to come in Canada. After the crappy US number released yesterday for May, Canada's number announced next week should be interesting.
Thursday, May 31, 2012
Ontario's $500,000 Tax Bracket, What Exactly is it?
The recent change to taxing income over $500,000 in Ontario prompted by the NDP and acquiesced to by the provincial Liberals has been subject to some confusion. It has been termed in the media as a 2% surtax for incomes over $500,000. However I found a KPMG document (warning PDF) that suggests that the 2% over $500,000 is actually a new tax bracket, not a surtax and the two existing surtaxes actually apply to this new tax bracket. I've seen this fact mentioned in the National Post, but nowhere else. Here's the relevant paragraph from the document:
In an amendment to its 2012 budget, Ontario temporarily introduced the “Deficit-Fighting High-Income Tax Bracket” which will apply to an Ontario individual taxpayer’s taxable, income in excess of $500,000. As a result, the top statutory Ontario income tax rate on taxable income of more than $500,000 will increase to 12.16% for all of 2012 (from11.16%) and to 13.16% in 2013. The Ontario Liberal government says it will eliminate the bracket once Ontario’s budget is balanced.
There's another interesting paragraph in the document about Ontario's tax indexation for inflation. The province uses its own value and for 2012 it is 3.3%. Raising the tax brackets by 3.3% should be interesting in such a moribund economy. Ontario's average wage is barely moving, so this should hurt tax revenue.
Ontario indexes its tax brackets and surtax thresholds using the same formula as thatused federally, but uses the provincial inflation rate rather than the federal rate in the calculation. The province’s inflation factor is 3.3% for 2012
One last thing about indexation. Will the $500,000 tax bracket in 2013 stay at $500,000 or will it get indexed to inflation? Who knows? I'm tempted to write my MPP, NDP leader Andrea Horwath to get some clarification since the NDP proposed it.
In an amendment to its 2012 budget, Ontario temporarily introduced the “Deficit-Fighting High-Income Tax Bracket” which will apply to an Ontario individual taxpayer’s taxable, income in excess of $500,000. As a result, the top statutory Ontario income tax rate on taxable income of more than $500,000 will increase to 12.16% for all of 2012 (from11.16%) and to 13.16% in 2013. The Ontario Liberal government says it will eliminate the bracket once Ontario’s budget is balanced.
There's another interesting paragraph in the document about Ontario's tax indexation for inflation. The province uses its own value and for 2012 it is 3.3%. Raising the tax brackets by 3.3% should be interesting in such a moribund economy. Ontario's average wage is barely moving, so this should hurt tax revenue.
Ontario indexes its tax brackets and surtax thresholds using the same formula as thatused federally, but uses the provincial inflation rate rather than the federal rate in the calculation. The province’s inflation factor is 3.3% for 2012
One last thing about indexation. Will the $500,000 tax bracket in 2013 stay at $500,000 or will it get indexed to inflation? Who knows? I'm tempted to write my MPP, NDP leader Andrea Horwath to get some clarification since the NDP proposed it.
Hamilton and University Graduates
Here's an interesting article from the NYT on Dayton Ohio and the percentage of residents with university degrees. I would be curious to see the statistics for Hamilton. The number of McMaster graduates that stick around has always been a problem for Hamilton, mainly due to a lack of suitable jobs in my opinion.
Are things getting better for Hamilton in this regard? Maybe. One related issue is that the value of a university degree has been watered down, so the measure isn't as valuable as it once was and community college diplomas have become more valuable relatively. Still the city lacks large private sector employers that employ large numbers of university graduates and probably won't any time soon.
Are things getting better for Hamilton in this regard? Maybe. One related issue is that the value of a university degree has been watered down, so the measure isn't as valuable as it once was and community college diplomas have become more valuable relatively. Still the city lacks large private sector employers that employ large numbers of university graduates and probably won't any time soon.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)