Metrolinx Slurps Up Hamilton Bus Fare Money to Pay Sunshine List Jobs in Toronto

One of the reoccurring themes of this blog is the ongoing centralization of government jobs serving the province to Toronto, much like what goes on in Bangkok versus the rest of Thailand.

The Star has a good article on Metrolinx charging 905 cities a higher percentage of bus fares to support Presto, the agency's mediocre fare collecting product.

Some councillors in the 905 region are fuming about a potential new deal for the Presto fare card system and are accusing the provincial transit agency of gouging smaller municipalities while giving Toronto a sweetheart deal.

For the past year 905 municipalities have been in negotiations with Metrolinx over a new operating agreement for Presto, the provincially owned fare card system used by transit systems across the region.

A deal has yet to be reached, but a report that went before the regional council of Durham Region last Wednesday revealed tentative terms of a potential 10-year deal.

According to the report, by 2021 the seven transit agencies in the 905 could have to pay a commission to Metrolinx equal to up to 9 per cent of fare revenue they collect through Presto. The municipalities currently pay a commission of 2 per cent, which Metrolinx uses to pay the operating costs of the fare card regime.

Under the terms of a deal the TTC inked with Metrolinx in 2012, the Toronto agency pays a commission of 4.65 per cent.

Before Presto, Hamilton would have received all their transit fares for the HSR. Now using Presto, potentially Hamilton could have to pay 9% of their fare revenue to Metrolinx, which is based in Toronto. On the 2012 Sunshine List, Metrolinx had 262 people making over $100,000 a year. That's a prime example of jobs that were originally done in Hamilton, now effectively centralized in Toronto. This begs the question of whether losing 9% is worth it compared to the hassle and expense of collecting a cash or ticket fare. 

The province enforces Presto by gas tax revenues the province shares with municipalities (in a method highly weighted toward Toronto). What is more ridiculous is that the TTC gets a massive break from Presto compared to other cities (plus the jobs working on the payment system stay in Toronto).

Hamilton Mayor Fred Eisenberger should propose to the province to move Metrolinx to Hamilton from Toronto. Being a regional agency (and providing Presto to Ottawa) there's no reason it has to be in Toronto and future workers could live in a much cheaper city and much cheaper digs than Union Station.

Hamilton Real Estate Prices Up 27.5% Year on Year in February 2017, Hamilton Centre 31.6%

The Real Estate Association of Hamilton-Burlington is reporting that in February:

Seasonally adjusted* sales of residential properties were 18.1 per cent higher than the same month last year, with the average sale price up 27.5 per cent for the month. Seasonally adjusted numbers of new listings were 2.5 per cent higher than February of 2016.

Residential sales prices going up 27.5% year on year is pretty nuts, although with Toronto prices, a hot spring was expected. Those numbers include more than just Hamilton, for Hamilton alone, the average sale price was up 27.1%. Burlington was up slightly higher at 27.6%. Hamilton freehold prices were up 27.0% versus 26.8% for condominiums, whereas for Burlington freehold prices were up a massive 34.6% versus only 15.7% for condominiums.

Some of the individual area increases in Hamilton were interesting. Mountain properties were up 29.4%. Hamilton Centre properties were up 31.6%. Dundas was only up 12%, but that was only on 39 sales. Hamilton West prices were up 24.4%.

Burlington freehold average price was almost a million dollars, up to $957,120, so Hamilton prices, especially in the lower city are a bargain by comparison. The spring should continue to be hot, however the anticipated rise in the US fed rate by a quarter of a percent (and another potential rate rise in 2017) which indirectly affects Canadian mortgage interest rates could cool things down.

This is fundamentally changing Hamilton. Rent will likely increase due to those who just can't afford to buy a house. Derelict properties will be renovated, although that has already been happening for a while.

Ontario Community Colleges Sunshine Lists and Statistics 2015

Here are some statistics and analysis of Ontario 2015 sunshine data (released in March 2016) for Ontario colleges.

The total number of individuals on these sunshine lists is 4910.

The total amount of salaries earned by those on the lists is $556,584,792.53.

The average salary for a college employee on the lists is $113,357.39.

The following statistics for each college, show the number of employees, the average salary for someone on the list and the total salaries for those on the list for the college. The link for each college goes to detailed data for each college, including individual sunshine list information, as well as the top ten, twenty five or fifty, for salary for each institution.

Algonquin College 369, $113,803.35, $41,993,434.83
Cambrian College 91, $117,032.75, $10,649,979.88
Canadore College 77, $112,368.68, $8,652,387.98
Centennial College 295, $112,421.24, $33,164,266.38
College Boreal 83, $117,207.44, $9,728,217.71
Conestoga College 288, $111,030.44, $31,976,765.70
Confederation College 83, $114,821.66, $9,530,197.58
Durham College 190, $114,873.23, $21,825,912.83
Fanshawe College 252, $110,224.01, $27,776,449.80
George Brown College 372, $111,709.25, $41,555,840.79
Georgian College 195, $114,645.78, $22,355,926.64
Humber College 428, $115,981.61, $49,640,129.97
La Cite 136, $114,546.69, $15,578,349.25
Lambton College 79, $114,913.42, $9,078,160.09
Loyalist College 77, $113,053.47, $8,705,116.92
Mohawk College 283, $114,721.92, $32,466,303.75
Niagara College Canada 181, $113,372.55, $20,520,432.13
Northern College 47, $116,920.14, $5,495,246.80
Sault College 97, $113,689.87, $11,027,917.82
Seneca College 488, $110,626.73, $53,985,843.72
Sheridan College Institute 349, $114,583.03, $39,989,476.44
Sir Sandford Fleming College 129, $111,769.38, $14,418,250.22
St. Clair College 209, $112,680.16, $23,550,152.82
St. Lawrence College 112, $115,357.43, $12,920,032.48

Federal Budget 2016-2017 Thoughts

There's not a lot I can say that hasn't been said by people who follow the federal budgets closer than I. This Stephen Gordon piece in Maclean's is good.

I would say that this follows the playbook of the Ontario Liberals, which isn't surprising when Trudeau's closest advisers (Katie Telford and Gerald Butts) are former Ontario Liberal advisers. Spend a lot, say it will bring growth and the growth doesn't materialize. Most of the spending doesn't seem like it will cause productivity growth and some of the social spending looks like it will encourage people to work less. People need to remember people respond to incentives.

When pundits say Canadians are OK with near 30 billion dollar budgets, I don't think they are totally wrong, however approximately 60% of Canadians voted for balanced budgets.

Finally the federal Liberals are also borrowing from the provincial playbook where they predict a colossal deficit and then claim they succeeded after they slightly beat that target. Or don't when GDP growth doesn't materialize sufficiently. Or a global slowdown occurs, which doesn't seem unlikely over Trudeau's term.

Hamilton Already Has Fourth Homicide of 2016

Hamilton Police have reported that a man in his forties was shot to death outside a barbershop on Upper Wellington between Queensdale and Brucedale yesterday afternoon. No name has been released yet. Police report four black males were seen running from the scene, but there have been no arrests.

That's the fourth homicide of 2016 in the city and the first in the three Mountain wards. Hamilton had only six homicides in all of last year. Tomorrow I'll make a post breaking down the four murders so far. 

Hamilton Has Third Homicide of 2016, Only Six All 2016

A man has been shot to death in Glanbrook early this morning. No name yet. Not a great start for 2016 considering that's the third murder in only six months.

Air Canada Back Servicing Montreal from Hamilton Munro Airport

Air Canada announced today that they are back serving Hamilton, with two flights per day to Montreal. Certainly a good thing for Hamilton and the somewhat beleaguered airport, especially after New Leaf, the new discount carrier after announcing service seems to have hit a fairly significant bump in the road.

Ottawa would have been nice too, but with basically only service to Frankfurt and London, it doesn't provide the possibilities of flying on to Europe from Montreal. Would a Hamiltonian rather fly from Hamilton to Montreal and then on to Europe or go to Pearson and fly direct? Depends on the person and where they live in Hamilton. If you live on the Mountain and only fifteen minutes away by car, then maybe.

Hopefully the service does well and Air Canada expands to Ottawa eventually as well. That's pretty much all one can hope for in terms of Air Canada at Hamilton airport.

Hamilton's Second Homicide of 2016 Has Already Occurred, Richard Crowder

There has been yet another homicide in Hamilton on the weekend.Richard Crowder (31 years old) was stabbed on Sunday afternoon (January 24th) at 86 Birge Street, between East and Victoria Avenues North in Ward Three. No suspects have been named.

Two murders in January is well ahead of the pace of last year's six murders.

First Homicide in 2016 For Hamilton,

Hamilton has had its first homicide of 2016, an unidentified woman found strangled to death early Saturday morning at the Admiral Hotel on Dundurn Street North. That is in Ward One. Hamilton had no murders in Ward One in 2015. Hamilton's last murder was Carmon Ward, in Ancaster, as yet unsolved on December 21st.

Hamilton Finishes With Six Homicides In 2015, 1.35 Per 100,000 Inhabitants (Toronto 2.10)

Hamilton ends up finishing with six murders in 2015, down one from 2014. Note that is the city, not the census area. Using the somewhat out of date Statscan population of 520K from 2011, that's a murder rate of 1.15 per 100,000 inhabitants. To contrast with Toronto which had 55 murders in 2015, or a murder rate of 2.10 per 100,000 (based over the Statscan 2011 population number of 2,615K). Four murders were in the lower city. None on the Mountain, one each in Ancaster and Waterdown. You can find a list of the seven 2014 murders in Hamilton here.

Date of Murder		Victim	Victim's Age	Cause of Death	City Ward	Suspect
January 8th, 2015		Nathan Miller	20	Shooting	3 (28 Madison Avenue)	Male 15, Jemaal Wilson, 20, Shamoiey Akindejoye 21
March 25th, 2015		Renee Neganiwina	26	Fire?	4 (561 Kenilworth Avenue)	Joseph Snelgrove, 38
May 15th, 2015		William McConville	40	Beating	2 (Stinson and Victoria)	Gordon Eugene O'Hara, 33, and Joshua Vernon O'Hara, 27
August 12th, 2015		Shariek Douse	18	Shooting	2 (MacNab Street North and Simcoe Street)	N/A
August 13th?, 2015		Lori Constable	55	Asphyxiation	15 (Riley Street, Waterdown)	Wayne Constable, 55 (husband, deceased, murder suicide
December 21st, 2015		Carmon Ward	60	Shooting	12 (Miller Drive, Ancaster)	N/A

Breakdown of Hamilton's Six Murders in 2015, Carmon Ward Added

Breakdown of Hamilton 2015 homicides to this date with the sixth murder, Carmon Ward. All murders have been in the lower city apart from the latest two, in Waterdown and Ancaster. There have been four male victims and two female victims. All suspects are males. Of the six killings, three are shootings. You can find a list of the seven 2014 murders in Hamilton here.

Date of Murder		Victim	Victim's Age	Cause of Death	City Ward	Suspect
January 8th, 2015		Nathan Miller	20	Shooting	3 (28 Madison Avenue)	Male 15, Jemaal Wilson, 20, Shamoiey Akindejoye 21
March 25th, 2015		Renee Neganiwina	26	Fire?	4 (561 Kenilworth Avenue)	Joseph Snelgrove, 38
May 15th, 2015		William McConville	40	Beating	2 (Stinson and Victoria)	Gordon Eugene O'Hara, 33, and Joshua Vernon O'Hara, 27
August 12th, 2015		Shariek Douse	18	Shooting	2 (MacNab Street North and Simcoe Street)	N/A
August 13th?, 2015		Lori Constable	55	Asphyxiation	15 (Riley Street, Waterdown)	Wayne Constable, 55 (husband, deceased, murder suicide
December 21st, 2015		Carmon Ward	60	Shooting	12 (Miller Drive, Ancaster)	N/A

Hamilton's Sixth Homicide, Carmon Ward

Carmon Ward was killed during a home invasion on December 21st in Ancaster. Ward, was a 60 year old male and killed by a gunshot wound to the chest. No suspect names have been released. The house was on Miller Drive, which is in Ward 12 and is Ancaster's first murder of the year. Ward is the third shooting victim out of six homicides in Hamilton this year.

GO Transit Fares Between Hamilton and Union Station to Rise By 60 Cents or 5.2%, After 4.5% Increase Last Year

GO Transit has announced that the fees for most rides (those above $5.70) will rise. For those fares above $8.25, the single adult paper fare will rise 60 cents.  That means for the $11.50 Hamilton to Union fare that is now $11.50 will rise to $12.10 which is a 5.2%. That's obviously a lot higher than Ontario's inflation rate and the rates have been rising more than inflation for years. Last year the fare increased by 50 cents from $11 to $11.50 or close to 4.5%.

For most Hamilton trips, I would guess the majority would come from the downtown GO station in Hamilton to Union station express bus. There's only six trains now one way in the morning and six back weekdays, while the buses run almost all day and on the weekends. Other GO Trips would come from the bus to the Aldershot GO station to transfer to the train, the GO bus to York University, buses from McMaster to Toronto, and the bus to Pearson that continues on to Richmond Hill. Thus for Hamilton, the vast numbers of users would be taking buses rather than trains.

Considering that the costs of diesel fuel have gone way down, and that bus driver fares have likely not risen 5.2% in one year, Hamiltonians are effectively subsidizing rides in those communities that have a majority of train users as train service expansion is comparatively more expensive than bus service, plus the costs of building parking lots at GO train terminals.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast for Fourth Quarter US GDP Lowered to 1.8%, Not Good For Ontario

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model for US GDP growth has just cut the fourth quarter estimate to 1.8%, the lowest since they started with predictions after the third quarter ended. It had got up to a high of 2.9% in early November.

What does that mean for Ontario's fourth quarter GDP? One can assume it is not good, considering the US is Ontario's dominant export market. Ontario's first quarter GDP was 0.0% and the second quarter was 1.4% (annualized) so a bad fourth quarter number would likely result in a poor yearly number, even if the third quarter is good (which in itself is a little doubtful considering the August and September manufacturing numbers were low).

Ontario Finance minister Charles Sousa is expecting to give an update on Ontario's finance tomorrow. Should be interesting.

Is Ontario Going To Have GDP Growth Over 2.0% In 2015? Surly Says No

Surly Hamilton follows the Ontario GDP reports from the finance ministry quite carefully. We were quite skeptical when the current budget document predicted GDP growth of 2.7% for Ontario in 2015. For the first two quarters of 2015, Ontario posted 0% growth in the first quarter and 1.4% in the second quarter (annualized).

So that's roughly 0.7% for the first half, which would require growth in the second half of 4.7% in order to reach the 2.7% prediction. In November, that seems very unlikely.

Now Ontario's financial accountability officer (sort of like the federal PBO) is predicting that the Ontario Liberal promise of balancing the provincial budget in 2017-2018 is unlikely. Part of this reason is that the officer is predicting growth of 2.0% for 2015. Which strikes me as also optimistic as it would require growth of 3.3% in the second half to reach. Given the weakness in Ontario employment growth lately and in the US economy, Ontario's principal export market, good GDP growth in Ontario seems extremely unlikely. The 2015 budget document also predicts GDP growth of 2.2% in 2016, which while more plausible, also seems unlikely to be reached.

Ontario has population growth of around 0.9% per year, so any economic growth beyond this requires productivity growth that Ontario has been unable to generate as it shifts to a service based economy from a manufacturing based economy. 

Ontario Peak Electricity Prices Rise 8.7% November 1st 2015, 25% Year on Year, 29.6% in 18 Months

This Global News article reports on the price rises in electricity that occur at the start of November:

"Under the new rules, off-peak hours will increase 0.3 cents to 8.3 cents per kWh, mid-peak hours will increase 0.6 cents to 12.8 cents per kWh and on-peak hours will increase 1.4 cents to 17.5 cents per kWh."

Curiously they can't be bothered to say what the percentage increases are. Peak time prices are actually rising 8.7%, which is quite massive considering that Ontario's inflation is between 1% and 2% and that the price increase follows the one in May, thus it is a 8.7% increase in only six months. Mid-peak prices increased by 4.9% and off-peak prices increased by 3.75%.

Perhaps more curiously the article couldn't be bother to figure out what the year on year increases were. I enumerated the recent price increases in electricity in Ontario in this post. The year on year increase in peak pricing in Ontario for November 1st will be  3.5 cents from 14 to 17.5 cents. That's a 25% year on year increase which obviously is way above inflation. For mid-peak, the increase is 1.4 cents, from 11.4 cents to 12.8 cents, a 12.2% increase. For off-peak pricing, the increase  is 0.6 cents from 7.7 to 8.3 cents, a 7.8% increase year over year. 

So it would seem the Liberal government of Kathleen Wynne is trying to increase prices of peak electricity relative to off-peak, trying to shift consumption to off peak periods (between 7 pm and 7 am during the November to April time period). 

However that's not all. What about the increase over 18 months? On peak pricing increased from 13.5 cents to 17.5 cents, a 4 cent increase or a 29.6% increase over 18 months. Mid-peak prices increased 1.2 cents from 11.2 cents to 12.8 cents or a 14.3% over 18 months. Off-peak pricing increased from 7.5 cents to 8.3 cents, a 0.8 cents increase over 18 months, or 9.4% in percentage terms.

Why the media can't be bothered to go back and look at the increases beyond just the most immediate is somewhat surprising to me. I'm not sure if the reporters are lazy or they are complicit with government and just don't want people to be aware. Probably lazy. One of these days I'll go back and look farther back at electricity price increases in Ontario over the past five years as I'm sure the chart would be interesting.  

Hamiltons's Fifth Homicide of 2015, Lori Constable 55

Hamilton's fifth murder of 2015 took place in August sometime around the 12th. Originally the deaths of Constable and her husband were a mystery, however according to this Spectator article, Lori Constable was smothered by her husband Wayne, also 55, at their home on Riley Street in Waterdown. This is the first murder outside of the inner city wards of Hamilton in 2015.

Breakdown of Hamilton's Three Murders of 2015, Nathan Miller Suspects Updated

Breakdown of Hamilton 2015 Homicides to this date with some of Nathan Miller's killers added. All murders have been in the lower city. Two male victims and one female victim. All suspects are males

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Date of Murder		Victim	Victim's Age	Cause of Death	City Ward	Suspect
January 8th, 2015		Nathan Miller	20	Shooting	3(28 Madison Avenue)	Male 15, Jemaal Wilson, 20, Shamoiey Akindejoye 21
March 25th, 2015		Renee Neganiwina	26	Fire?	4(561 Kenilworth Avenue)	Joseph Snelgrove, 38
May 15th, 2015		William McConville	40	Beating	2 (Stinson and Victoria)	Gordon Eugene O'Hara, 33, and Joshua Vernon O'Hara, 27

Arrests in Made in January Slaying of Nathan Miller, First 2015 Murder in Hamilton

The Spec is reporting that two arrests have been made in Nathan Miller's slaying on January 8th. Miller was shot at a house at 28 Madison Avenue.

One arrested was a 15 year old boy who can't be named due being a young offender. Also arrested was a 21 year old man, Shamoiey Akindejoye.

Jemaal Wilson, 20, is in custody for unrelated charges and will also be charged in the slaying.

Two other suspects, both young black males are sought.

Hamilton so far has three murders in 2015.  

Breakdown of Hamilton's Three Murders in 2015, Updated with Arrest of William McConville Alleged Killers

Breakdown of Hamilton 2015 Homicides to this date including the most recent homicide of William McConville and the arrest of his alleged killers:

Date of Murder		Victim	Victim's Age	Cause of Death	City Ward	Suspect
January 8th, 2015		Nathan Miller	20	Shooting	3(28 Madison Avenue)	N/A
March 25th, 2015		Renee Neganiwina	26	Fire?	4(561 Kenilworth Avenue)	Joseph Snelgrove, 38
May 15th, 2015		William McConville	40	Beating	2 (Stinson and Victoria)	Gordon Eugene O'Hara, 33, and Joshua Vernon O'Hara, 27