Tuesday, December 29, 2015

Ontario and Canada 2015 November Jobs Numbers Analysis

I'm finally getting around to looking at the seasonally adjusted employment data for Canada and Ontario for November 2015.

For Canada, overall employment dropped by 35,700 in November, but curiously full-time increased by 36,600. Part-time dropped by 72,300.

For Ontario, overall employment decreased by 6,400 jobs. Similar to the overall Canadian numbers, full-time increased by 5,700 while part-time decreased by 12,000.
Since July overall employment in Ontario has decreased by 14,900 jobs which is interesting in terms of GDP growth. Ontario's GDP growth was weak in the first and second quarter and is supposed to be better in the third quarter, but the jobs numbers haven't really showed it and the fourth quarter jobs numbers aren't looking good. I'm not expecting much from the December numbers which we should get January 8th.

For the year to date, Ontario overall jobs have increased by 45,800 jobs. The employment age population increased over the same period by 115,600 indicating that employment growth has lagged population growth, which isn't going to be good for tax revenues per capita.

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