"In the recent fall economic update, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty projected Ottawa would be in the red by $32.3 billion. With four months left, the government is on pace to come in with a deficit under $30 billion.
In a commentary, TD economist Sonya Gulati projected the deficit to come in at a range between $27 billion and 28 billion, with the deficit-to-GDP ratio for the year close to 1.7 per cent, a "significant" improvement from the 3.6 per cent figure at the peak of the recession beginning in 2009."
With the Ontario 2011-2012 budget deficit widely guessed as being $16 billion, that's not too far off from the federal one. Ontario is projected to have similar deficits for the next few fiscal years, while the federal one is rapidly shrinking.
That raises the question, when does the federal deficit become lower than the provincial one. I would guess the 2013-2014 fiscal year, although the preceding one will be quite close. Considering federal finance Minister Jim Flaherty doesn't seem afraid to cut, while Premier Dalton McGuinty hasn't really shown much cutting during his term in office, I think the federal deficit being less than the provincial one is inevitable.