There's a Forum Research poll out saying the Ontario Tories are at 41%, the Liberals at 33% and the NDP at 20%. Not really surprising that a long in the tooth government is losing in a poll (the last election notwithstanding). The problem for the Liberals is that implementing the cost cutting recommendations in the Drummond Report in the upcoming deficit isn't going to help their numbers. Various groups are going to be pissed when either their salaries, jobs or government funding is cut. Those previously predisposed to vote for the Liberals will either not vote or vote for the NDP, leaving Tory leader Tim Hudak advantaged.
Look for the next budget to have some tentative steps at cutting the $16 billion deficit and then Hudak looking for an appropriate issue to bring down the government. Watch Andrea Horwath trying to decided whether to prop up the Liberals (which will be harder to justify if the Liberals are cutting and implementing the Drummond report) or go for her own opportunity to grab as many inner city Liberal seats as possible.
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