Hamilton's GDP Growth Prediction 2%

The Conference Board of Canada is predicting 2% growth for Hamilton in 2012. Nut graf:

"With the global economy now back on shaky ground, Hamilton’s economy will grow by a modest 2 per cent in 2012."

Not bad, but not great either. What would be helpful would be Hamilton's rate of population growth to figure out the growth of GDP per capita.

Toronto's will be 2.6% and Ottawa's only 1.8% so the Hammer isn't doing so bad for Ontario.

Ontario's GDP Drops 0.3% in Second Quarter 2011

Well the GDP number for the second quarter in Ontario is out (fortunately for Dalton McGuinty the number comes out after the election), and as was predicted by many, including Surly Hamiltonian it is not good at -0.3% (annualized rate -1.3%). That's not going to be good for government revenue or the deficit for the 2011-2012 fiscal year (which starts in the second quarter).

Amusingly the gnomes in the Ontario finance department were crowing earlier this year about possible growth of over 3% in 2011. Looks like that won't happen now with first quarter growth being 0.8% in 2011.

This is going to cause problems for the premier's spending plans after the election. With some public sector salary increases still locked in for this fiscal year (teachers and doctors I'm looking at you), the situation isn't going to be pretty.

Canada's Second Quarter GDP Growth 1.5% in 2011

I'm always interested in quarterly rates of GDP growth, especially comparing the federal versus Ontario's. Here's an article reporting the Bank of Canada's estimate for the second quarter:

The Canadian economy grew at a slower-than-expected pace of 1.5 per cent in the second quarter, the Bank of Canada estimated Wednesday as it slashed an earlier forecast that looked for growth of two per cent.

However, the central bank said it expected the domestic economy will grow slightly faster in the second half of the year than thought earlier, logging overall annual growth of 2.8 per cent for 2011, down slightly from an earlier estimate of 2.9 per cent.

That's pretty weak and considering the events of the past week I can't see the third quarter being strong. The big question is how Ontario did. Was Ontario above or below the national average. I'm guessing slightly above, but the high price of oil during the quarter could not have helped.

Ontario Had 3.2% First Quarter GDP Growth in 2011

One stat that I think that should be found easily on the web is Ontario's GDP growth quarter by quarter and as up to date as possible. The Ontario numbers, when they come out, are usually way behind the federal one. This Star article reports the first quarter number for Ontario, which I think is after the feds have reported their second quarter (which I don't have on hand, but I remember is mediocre):

"The finance ministry said Ontario’s economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.2 per cent in the first quarter, the seventh consecutive gain since the recession."

Now I'm curious what the second quarter number will be, especially after hearing the fed numbers. Unfortunately, we probably won't hear that number until after the next election. I'm guessing based on the feds it won't be good.

Some day I'll collect the Ontario quarterly numbers and plot them over the last fifteen years or so. I'm sure that would be quite interesting.