Canada and Ontario February 2016 Job Numbers

Some mediocre numbers for both Canada and Ontario even with the really low Canadian dollar. Jobs overall in Canada were down 2,300 in February and down 8,000 since December. Full-time jobs sank by 51,800 while part-time rose by 49,500. Since October, jobs are down by 18,100.

Ontario after two months of jobs gains, was down by 11,200. Full-time employment was way down, with 48,900 job losses, while part-time jobs were up by 37,700. Since October full-time jobs were up 10,300 in Ontario.

Ontario's September 2015 Employment Numbers. Not Good.

So the jobs numbers for September came out from Statscan. For all of Canada, employment went up a mediocre 12,100 jobs. Unfortunately for Ontario, employment went down by a relatively massive 33,800 jobs (oddly Alberta gained 12,300 jobs in September). That follows a smaller loss of 3,900 jobs in August. July's employment numbers were unchanged. So by any measure, that's a pretty stagnant three month period for jobs in Ontario.

One wonders how that will end up showing up in the third quarter GDP numbers. By comparison, for the January, February and March period, jobs went up by 17,100 even though the GDP number was negative for the first quarter. That suggests to me that the third quarter GDP number for Ontario could also be negative (note that the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model is predicting only 1% GDP growth in the third quarter for the US, Ontario's primary export market).

Obviously the monthly and three months numbers, aren't good for Ontario, what about the entire year's? Since the start of the year, Ontario's jobs numbers are up 23,000, which isn't terrible, but certainly not particularly good either. However, Canada's number is 126,600 since the start of the year, so Ontario's portion is way below its share of Canada's population.

There was also some bad news in terms of the composition of the jobs in Ontario in September. Full-time jobs were down by 67,700 compared to an increase of 34,000 part-time jobs. I'm not sure if there's a statistical aberration with the full-time versus part-time numbers or what. Over the full year, the full-time number is much better, a gain of 67,800 jobs versus a loss of 44,800 part-time jobs.

July 2015 US and Canadian Jobs Data Out Tomorrow

US jobs data is out tomorrow for July and I'm pretty sure Canada's is too. I'm expecting decent but not great numbers for the US.

For Canada I'm not sure. June's data was mediocre after a strong May. If July's data is also good, one would expect that the third quarter will be a lot better for GDP than the first and second. If not, the third quarter could also end up being weak. Ontario's numbers were strong in June so it will be interesting to see if that continues.

2015 Canada Jobs Numbers

Employment was down in Canada in June by 6,400 jobs after a big gain of 59,000 jobs in May. Weirdly there was a big gain in June of full-time jobs, going up 64,800 while part-time jobs declined by 71,200 jobs. I'm not sure what's up with that.

Since January, employment is up by 95,900 jobs. There's been a lot of talk of a technical recession in Canada for the first two quarters of 2015. It is certainly possibly since all you need is two quarters in a row of slightly negative growth, although it would be unusual for it to occur while employment has increased somewhat.

I'll take a look at the Ontario and Alberta numbers in a future post.

Ontario and Alberta May 2015 Employment Numbers

Ontario had a massive month over month jobs gain in May 2015, with 43,900 more jobs. Full-time employment was up 31,100 while part-time jobs were up 12,700. From January, employment went up 45,400 so the first four months were pretty pathetic in terms of job growth (working age population went up by 35,800 in that period). That will probably show up in the GDP numbers for Ontario, with the first quarter coming in weak, with the second stronger from May onwards. It will be interesting to see whether May is an anomaly or the start of a stronger trend for job growth in Ontario. Potentially after a weak start for the US economy in 2015, strength there could be seeping into Ontario.

For Alberta, employment went down in May by 6,400. Full time actually went up by 20,200 while
part time was down 26,600. So that's somewhat mixed, although certainly the effect of the crash of oil prices is reducing jobs. More concerning is that jobs are down 6,400 from January indicating a very flat employment situation. However considering that oil is down so much, a flat employment situation is actually pretty good. It will be interesting to see what happens going forward through the summer.

Canadian April 2015 Jobs Numbers: Down, Ontario Unchanged

Statscan just released the jobs number for April with a loss of around 20,000. That follows a gain of around 30,000 in March. Jobs were only up 8 thousand over three months, which is a pretty weak three months of job growth.

Full-time employment was up 46,900 jobs versus a big loss for part-time jobs of 66,500 thousand.

The US job growth for April was 223,000 which is considerably better than Canada's performance for the month.

First quarter GDP growth looks to be weak in Canada, from these jobs numbers, GDP growth has a weak start in the second quarter of 2015 as well.

I'll do a separate Ontario post later today.

March 2015 Canada Jobs Numbers Out, 28,700 Gained

Statscan just released the March 2015 jobs numbers with 28,700 new jobs. Earlier I predicted 20,000 new jobs so I wasn't off by much. That's up from the 1000 job loss for the country in February and arguably better than the 126,000 jobs the US gained in March.

According to the Statscan summary here, Saskatchewan and Manitoba gained jobs while the other provinces stayed roughly the same. Which seems a little strange, as one would expect some problems for Alberta and Saskatchewan has oil influence as well.

The summary also notes:

"In March, employment was also little changed in both Quebec and Ontario. In Quebec, year-over-year growth was 0.8%, with all of the gains in the first two months of 2015. In Ontario, employment edged up 0.5% compared with 12 months earlier."

Considering the Ontario population is growing around 1% a year, 0.5% isn't particularly impressive. Quebec's number is just weird as I'm not sure what's special about January and February this year for that province.

I'll have a closer look at the Ontario numbers in the next couple of days.

March 2015 Employment Numbers for Canada Come Out Today at 8:30

After a disappointing 126,000 jobs created in March were announced last Friday in the US, Statscan will release the Canadian numbers today. The February Canadian number was poor as 1000 jobs were lost. A mediocre March number would confirm that the first quarter was probably poor for GDP in Canada.

The Ontario number should be interesting too. Are job losses or lack of job creation limited to Alberta and Saskatchewan? Or will Ontario be affected too?

I'm predicting 20,000 jobs created overall. February was a brutal month weather wise for a lot of the country and some hires probably got pushed back until March.

Ontario January 2015 Employment Numbers

I've meant to get around to looking at the latest employment numbers for Ontario. Canada added a decent 35.4K jobs in January compared to the month before. Ontario not so much.

Ontario added a meager 1300 jobs in January, although that was an improvement over the last two months where Ontario actually lost jobs. That means over the last three months Ontario actually lost 43.4 thousand jobs, which makes for a pretty poor three month period. Employment numbers can jump a lot from month to month, but this poor performance over three months has to be taken seriously and detracts from the narrative that Ontario is growing well (and can't be great for the fourth quarter of 2014 GDP number).

The composition of the jobs also changed detrimentally last month. Ontario lost 23.2 thousand full time jobs while gaining 24.4 thousand part-time jobs. This would seem to be continuing a trend where in Ontario the proportion of jobs that are part-time is increasing.

Interestingly, over four months Ontario has actually lost 19.1 thousand full-time jobs, while the working age population increased by 31.9 thousand. Part-time jobs did increase by 24.4 thousand over that period.

One has to think that these low job numbers are going to have an effect on GDP, and income and sales tax revenue for the province. RBC is predicting Ontario will have 3.1% GDP growth in this PDF. I'm skeptical. Considering the low dollar hasn't done a lot to stimulate job growth over the past four months, I don't see a lot of job growth in 2015. That report is also predicting employment growth of 1.4% in 2015.

Canada's November 2014 Jobs Numbers Out, 10,700 Jobs Lost Versus US 321,000 Gained

The Globe and Mail has a good summary article here on the November unemployment numbers. Canada lost 10,700 jobs after gains in back to back months. For comparison purposes, the US gained a healthy 321,000 jobs in November.

I'm going to do a more in depth post on Ontario's numbers, however from the article Ontario apparently lost jobs last month, compared to a big gain last month.

The breakdown in the composition of the jobs numbers was interesting:

"The private sector cut 45,600 positions last month, while the public sector added 22,600. Self-employment grew by 12,300."

That's not particularly great news and I would love to see the Ontario breakdown. A lot of commentators have claimed that Ontario should benefit from a stronger US economy, however with out auto sector being decimated over the past decade I'm not sure Ontario is as linked to the US economy as it once was or perhaps more precisely how quickly Ontario benefits from a stronger US economy.

A lower Canadian dollar certainly benefits the province, if only because imports from the US both for the consumer and the business sector will decline and go instead to local sources. Hopefully exports will respond too, but Ontario's strongest business seems to be real estate and we can't export that.

Canada Has Decent Job Creation Numbers for September

Somewhat surprising, although the US stock market was at record highs during September (which obviously isn't the case now) and the dollar was low versus the US dollar.

For Canada overall, going from 17,851,400 employed in August to 17,925,500 in September, an increase of 74,100 jobs which is quite good. Going against the trend of late, increase came primarily from full-time employment which increased by 69,300 jobs versus an increase of around 5,000 jobs for part-time. This comes after all jobs decreased by 11,000 jobs in Canada in August.

One wonders however with the upheaval in the stock market this month and lower oil prices what that means for employment in the coming months.

A Closer Look at Ontario's June 2014 Employment Numbers

A blogged briefly about the poor Ontario jobs numbers for June, but I said I would take a closer look so I am.

Total employment in June from Statscan was 6,900,800. That was down -0.5% from June and up 0.1% from the previous year. Considering that population growth was around 0.9% for Ontario currently, that's quite poor performance and problematic for tax revenues and GDP growth.

Here's the population numbers for the last six months:
December 11,267,600
January, 11,278,400
February 11,287,300
March 11,298,600
April11,313,900
May 11,323,300
June 11,336,000

Employment
December 6,876,800
January 6,882,800
February 6,888,900
March 6,902,300
April 6,919,900
May 6,934,700
June 6,900,800

Full-Time Employment
December 5,577,500
January 5,600,600
February 5,605,900
March 5,599,400
April 5,625,200
May 5,594,800
June 5,575,900

Part-Time Employment
December 1,299,200
January 1,282,200
February 1,283,000
March 1,302,900
April 1,294,000
May 1,339,900
June 1,324,900

Looking over the past six months, the numbers aren't great. Population is up 0.61% compared to overall employment up 0.35%. Considerably more disturbing is that full-time employment over the past six months is actually down 0.03%. That's not good for Ontario's GDP growth over the first half nor is good for provincial tax revenues, as Ontario's income taxes are highly reliant on surtaxes targeted towards those earning above the median.

Part-time was at least up 1.98%, although that indicates the jobs Ontario is creating are low paying part-time jobs that as mentioned earlier, don't pay a lot in provincial income taxes.

Canada February 2014 Employment Numbers Out, Jobs Down Slightly

Canada's employment numbers are out for February and it is a little bit of a surprise with the country losing 7,000 jobs. Over at the StatsCan web page on the numbers, there is a few interesting things.

No mention of Ontario's numbers so I'm assuming that they didn't really change. They didn't change much in January either after a big drop in December. Weather related? Who knows. Considering that Ontario's population is growing around 1% a year, that's a pretty poor three months.

Some interesting numbers from Alberta:
"Employment in Alberta rose by 19,000 in February, pushing the unemployment rate down 0.3 percentage points to 4.3%. On a year-over-year basis, employment in this province grew by 3.8% or 82,000, accounting for the lion's share of the national growth."

So over the past year, what growth there has been in in jobs has been in Alberta.

Public sector jobs were down:

"In February, the number of public sector employees fell by 51,000, with declines in health care and social assistance, educational services as well as transportation and warehousing. On a year-over-year basis, there was little change in the public sector and in self-employment, while the number of private sector employees increased by 129,000 (+1.1%)."

Seems weird for public sector jobs to be down that much and Ontario's numbers to be unchanged unless Ontario has some commensurate growth in private sector jobs.

These month to month numbers are quite volatile so keep that in mind.

Canada's Janurary Employment Numbers Are Out, No Recovery for Ontario from Big December Drop

Statscan has the employment numbers out for January, available here. After a big dive of over 40,000 in December, the country as a whole bounced back with 29,000 jobs.

One thing about the numbers that the media didn't pick up on was that Ontario didn't bounce back at all in January. Although the media in general doesn't seem to care a lot about the individual Ontario numbers. In December Ontario lost a massive 39,000 jobs (which would be the equivalent of losing over 900,000 jobs in a month in the entire US). With the ice storm affecting Southern Ontario in December, conceivably some jobs weren't filled and perhaps they would show up in the January numbers. But they didn't:

"Although employment was little changed in Ontario, the unemployment rate fell 0.4 percentage points to 7.5% as fewer people looked for work. On a year-over-year basis, employment in the province rose by 54,000 or 0.8%, the same growth rate as the national average."

That's not really reassuring although at least Ontario didn't lose jobs two months in a row. The number of jobs increasing by 0.8% over a year isn't that fantastic considering the province's population grows at 1% at year currently (from Wikipedia).

Again the February numbers should be interesting to try and discern a trend. For the provincial treasury, low job growth isn't going to help income tax revenue, so the budget should be interesting to say the least. 

Canada's November GDP Growth 0.2%, What will December's Numbers be for Ontario?

Canada reported 0.2% GDP growth in November according to this Financial Post article. What I found most interesting from the article was this:

"The overall increase in gross domestic product was in line with forecasts, while still below the previous month’s pace of 0.3%.

“The three-month trend in growth is now running at a nifty 3.8% annualized clip,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets.

“However, we look for a setback in next month’s report, as the brutal December weather — notably the ice storm in Ontario — is expected to produce a GDP decline for that month.”"

If GDP growth for December is negative for the country because of the ice storm, how bad will it be for Ontario? We've already seen 39,000 jobs lost in Ontario in December, so we can assume it will be quite poor and hence the overall fourth quarter numbers will be poor. One bright spot could be that hiring was suppressed in Ontario in December and will bounce back strongly in January. Those numbers should be out soon.

Canada's overall GDP growth was 2.7% in the third quarter of 2013, compared to 2.3% for Ontario (from the Ontario Finance Ministry's website, released in January 2014):

"Ontario’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased 0.6% (2.3% annualized) in the third quarter of 2013."