Flaherty Warns of Revenue Hit, But What About Ontario?

In this Globe article, federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty warns of lower revenue for the 2013-2014 budget:

On Friday the minister met in Ottawa with private sector economists to discuss expectations for economic growth that will underpin the 2013 budget. Economists said they have lowered their forecasts since they last met with Mr. Flaherty in November, however their average forecast will be kept secret by the finance department until the budget is released.

 “How much of a kick are we going to take on the revenue side because of lower nominal GDP? Significant. It’s significant,” said Mr. Flaherty Friday as he spoke with reporters following the meeting.

Obviously that's problematic for the feds. We already know that growth was almost non-existent during the second half of 2012 which will affect revenue, plus this year's growth looks to underperform the earlier prognostications.

What I'm wondering is what it means for Ontario? Ontario's growth was poor just like the overall federal numbers in the second half of 2012. That has to hurt, the Ontario portion of the HST, corporate taxes and personal income taxes. However due to low prices for Alberta crude versus benchmarks like WTI, federal revenues are also hurt, whereas this affects Ontario significantly less if at all. Which taxes dominate the lower fed revenues? We should know more when the Ontario 2013-2014 budget is presented by Kathleen Wynne's Liberals, however given the weak growth in the second half of 2012 and potentially going forward, expect lower revenues for Ontario too.