Wednesday, December 4, 2013

Ontario Electricity Global Adjustment for November 2013: Really High

The second estimate for the global adjustment for Ontario's electricity bills for November is out and it isn't good. The second estimate is usually quite close to the final value and for November it was 8.49 cents per kilowatt hour. That's significantly more than the 5.75 cents for the previous November and interestingly a big increase from October's final number of 6.34 cents. More wind power that gets a much higher than market price has come on stream in 2013 and Ontario has to buy it all, driving up the global adjustment.

If the final November number is anywhere close to the second estimate (and it usually is), the 8.49 cents is highest for any month in 2012 and 2013 (and maybe ever). The previous high was June 2013 at 7.04 cents.

Increasing from October is a little strange, as a high number usually comes from high output from solar and wind and low demand. November is usually significantly colder than October so there is usually more demand for electrical heat. However this year November wasn't that cold, but there were some windy days, including some that were uncharacteristically warm. In every month since April, this global adjustment number has been higher in 2013 than 2012. The first estimate for December is 7.61 cents which is considerably higher than the 4.63 cents in 2012. When the final estimates are in for 2013 I'll calculate the average for the year. For reference the average monthly rate for 2012 was 4.97 cents per KWh

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