Wednesday, November 25, 2015

Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast for Fourth Quarter US GDP Lowered to 1.8%, Not Good For Ontario

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model for US GDP growth has just cut the fourth quarter estimate to 1.8%, the lowest since they started with predictions after the third quarter ended. It had got up to a high of 2.9% in early November.

What does that mean for Ontario's fourth quarter GDP? One can assume it is not good, considering the US is Ontario's dominant export market. Ontario's first quarter GDP was 0.0% and the second quarter was 1.4% (annualized) so a bad fourth quarter number would likely result in a poor yearly number, even if the third quarter is good (which in itself is a little doubtful considering the August and September manufacturing numbers were low).

Ontario Finance minister Charles Sousa is expecting to give an update on Ontario's finance tomorrow. Should be interesting.

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