Wednesday, January 9, 2013

When Will We Get Third Quarter Ontario GDP Numbers?

I'm trying to make a guess at when the numbers for third quarter GDP growth will be out for Ontario. I noticed that fourth quarter 2011 were out April 9th, 2012, so based on that they should be coming out soon. I'll be curious to see how Ontario's number compares to the already released federal number of 0.6% (on a annualized basis, taken from this Bloomberg article). Will Ontario's be worse or better? Even if it is around the same, considering Ontario's population growth is 1.2% a year, that's not great news for GDP growth per capita.

From these paragraphs in the Bloomberg article, perhaps Ontario will outperform the federal number, as a big hit to growth was cratering energy product exports while auto related exports actually increased:


"Exports of goods and services declined 2.0% in the third quarter. This was the largest quarterly decrease since the second quarter of 2009.
Exports of goods fell 2.1%. Energy products (-6.4%) and consumer goods (-3.7%) contributed the most to the decrease.
Exports of industrial machinery, electronic and electrical equipment, and aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts were also down. However, motor vehicles and parts (+1.1%) posted a fifth consecutive quarter of growth.
Exports of services declined 1.3%, as all categories of services fell except for travel services (+0.1%)."
From this webpage from the Ministry of Finance, revenues for 2008-09 were 97,532, in 2009-10 96,313, in 2010-11 107,175, in 2011-12 (interim) 109,332 and 2012-13 projected 112,587. With likely lower Ontario GDP growth than projected how will the 2011-12 numbers hold up with a bad third quarter number?

At least expenses look somewhat flat, with the 2008-09 coming in at 103,941, 2009-10 at 115,575, 2010-11 at 121,186, with interim 2011-12 estimated at 124,310 and projected 2012-13 expenses estimated at 126,407.

All in all, the third quarter numbers should shed some light on where Ontario is going. Especially since the 2012 fourth quarter numbers don't look great either.


No comments:

Post a Comment