Monday, July 21, 2014

Consensus for 2014 US GDP Growth Down to 1.7%, What About Ontario's

I saw recently on Zerohedge the consensus for US GDP growth for 2014 is now down to 1.7% (the decline of -2.9% in the first quarter obviously didn't help). Surly Hamiltonian has been tracking Ontario GDP quite closely and weak US growth for 2014 can't help Ontario. Currently the 2014 Ontario budget document predicts 2.1% growth. That would seem to be in jeopardy. Perhaps what's more important is 2015 which could end up more of the same like in 2014. Currently the Ontario 2014 budget document predicts 2.5%, which is quite high for the last ten years. If US growth in 2015 ends up lower than what was predicted previously that would definitely affect Ontario and 2.5% would be an overestimation.

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