Events are fluid right now in Iraq with ISIS in control of a large swathe of Iraq and not far outside of Baghdad. They're still relatively far from the Southern oil fields in Shia areas, but Iraq produces over 3 million dollars per day. Foreign oil companies are probably starting to move out personal who have been key in boosting Iraqi production (the US has starting moving out their own personal from Bahgdad) and this could have an affect on production by itself.
Clearly if over 3 million barrels of Iraqi crude go off-line, that's good for oil prices. T. Boone Pickens is predicting oil would go to between $150 to $200 a barrel if Iraq goes off-line (although T. can be a bit of a chicken little at times).
So Ontario. Obviously Ontario produces hardly any oil so higher oil prices are just taking dollars out of the provincial economy. Alberta produces a lot of oil obviously, so high prices are good for them and will keep the Canadian dollar propped up, which is bad for Ontario.
Watch for oil prices tomorrow. I'm assuming that in the end, not much will happen to Iraqi production, but prices will continue to go up. High enough to impact Ontario's economy? Ontarians are used to higher oil prices, but gas reaching $1.60 in Southern Ontario is going to be a big hit to an already weak economy.