Manufacturing Down in March

Here's a Financial Post article on a decline in manufacturing activity in Canada in March.

"The RBC Canadian Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index was at 49.3 last month after adjusting for seasonal variation, down from 51.7 in February. A reading above 50 represents expansion, while a number below 50 means contraction."

I'm interested in these numbers mainly because I'm trying to get a sense of GDP growth in Canada and Ontario in Q1 2013. The last two quarters of 2012 had weak growth (1% or less and less than population growth) and it is important to know whether Q1 was also weak. Another weak quarter would have a big impact on federal and Ontario government revenues (as already has been seen in the just released federal budget). Q1 looks better than the previous two, especially with the US economy picking up, but these weak numbers for March manufacturing make me wonder how strong the GDP number will be.

We should know the federal number soon. I'm going to guess 1.5.