Monday, June 9, 2014

Is Hamilton Mountain NDP MPP Monique Taylor in Trouble on Hamilton Mountain

With a lot of commentators saying that the NDP could lose some seats in the upcoming provincial elections, I wondered about the three Hamilton NDP seats. Obviously leader Andrea Horwath isn't losing. I'm also assuming that Hamilton East/Stoney Creek is OK. That leaves rookie Monique Taylor on Hamilton Mountain.

Tayolr beat incumbent Liberal Sophie Aggelonitis, a cabinet minister last time round, with 20,492 votes versus 14,694 for the Liberal. That's a pretty healthy margin for beating an incumbent, although in my opinion Aggelonitis wasn't a super strong candidate, with some weak fairly weak ties to Hamilton Mountain.

With regards to the NDP losing seats, I'm guessing they are likely to be those they picked up in bye-elections rather than those they won in the last election. I don't think Liberal candidate Javid Mirza is a weak candidate, however his advocating against the province funding LRT in Hamilton seems weird, although for the Liberals who would prefer to spend the money in Toronto as opposed to Hamilton he's helping them out.

If Taylor loses, the NDP have had a bad night. The one advantage Taylor has is that voters likely know that the seat isn't going to go PC so they can vote NDP without worrying too much about Tim Hudak.

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