McGuinty and Hudak Rule Out Coalitions

According to this Globe and Mail article, both Dalton McGuinty and Tim Hudak have ruled out coalition governments and would I assume try and govern during the recent federal period of minority governments with Paul Martin and Stephen Harper.

Hudak is obviously a no brainer to go against teaming up with NDP, but things are a little more nuanced with McGuinty. Saying he would partner before the election wouldn't help. It would scare away right leaning liberals that wouldn't want anything to do with the NDP having a portion of power. Those worried about public sector salary increases would also vote against NDP involvement in government, but really they wouldn't vote Liberal given McGuinty's record during the past eight years.

Of course once the election is over and assuming a minority situation, McGuinty could easily try for a coalition if he has less seats than Hudak. What would be interesting is public perception. If he has one seat less, not really a huge deal, but double digit seats less might prove unpalatable to the public.

In terms of the NDP, a coalition with the Liberals and getting a piece of government would be a short term game. However I would guess like their federal cousins, the NDP is looking to supplant the Liberals in Ontario and wouldn't have huge interest in propping up a regime that is past its due date. Whatever happens, things will be interesting, with a lot of histrionics.

Ontario Election, Minority Government, What Happens?

With polls having the Tories and Grits relatively close in the Ontario election and the NDP highest since Bob Rae's majority, the possibility of a minority goverment looms large. If Dalton McGuinty wins the most seats, I don't really see him forming a formal coalition with the NDP, but rather attempting to govern like Stephen Harper during his recent minority period. I don't think that's inherently stable, especially with weak second and third quarter GDP growth causing problems. Hudak and Horwath coming together as a coalition is obviously very unlikely in this scenario.

What's more interesting is if Tim Hudak wins the most seats, but not a majority. Do McGuinty and Horwath form a premptive coaltion and deny Hudak a turn as premier, or do they lie in wait to eventually usurp Huday like Stephen attempted to do a couple of years ago federally?

I think for McGuinty, coming off of eight years of majority government, allowing Hudak to even be premier for a little while is problematic. A minority premier isn't all powerful, but there's probably a lot of skeletons in the Liberal closet that come out if McGuinty is not premier so there's considerable incentive for McGuinty and Horwath to do a deal.

Vote splits versus seat counts could also factor. If Hudak is close to a majority and has a lot more seats than McGuinty, than a NDP Liberal coalition will be more difficult. If the Liberals win more seats than the Tories, but lose the popular vote than things get interesting.

Ontario Election Rogue Poll, McGuinty Ahead?

There's a new Harris/Decima poll out with Dalton McGuinty's Liberals ahead by 11 points at 40%, far beyond anything that has been seen so far. The Tories are at 29 percent and the NDP at 24%. This seems pretty bizarre, especially with the NDP number so high, but maybe it is a sign of something new. One issue in this election will be vote turnout for the parties. I'm assuming those that loathe McGuinty will make an effort, as will teachers for McGuinty, but how many others will make the effort to get out for McGuinty? With Harris having a majority, perhaps those upset with him will turn out to vote against Hudak.

Ontario 2010/2011 Budget Deficit Lower Than Expected

The Star has an article about the Ontario budget deficit situation. Good news that the deficit for the fiscal year ending at the end of March is only 14 billion, lower than expected. I'd be curious to see the breakdown in terms of where the smaller deficit came from? Lower spending or more revenue including more HST revenue.

An ominous quote about this fiscal year's deficit: "But Duncan said in an interview that this fiscal year's deficit is still projected to come in at $16 billion, slightly higher than the actual figure for last year."

Considering that the first quarter of this fiscal year (this past April to June period) is looking weak, judging by the federal number and the fact that the US is looking especially weak going forward (which is more important for Ontario than for other provinces), could Ontario's deficit go up? Very possible, although with the election, whoever wins will have a bit of control over it, but not much. If Hudak wins, expect him to stuff whatever he can in this year's budget to make subsequent budget deficits look better.